National Weather Service High Temperature Prediction Analysis

Note: All differences have their signs flipped from the original data, as requested.

Median High Temperature Differences by City

City Number of Predictions Median Difference (°F)
Chicago 841 2.0
Denver 841 1.0
Los Angeles 837 0.0
New York 841 2.0
Austin 839 -1.0
Miami 841 -1.0
Philadelphia 841 9.0
Overall 5881 1.0

Chicago (841 predictions)

Difference (°F) Count Percentage Distribution
-11 2 0.2%
-9 12 1.4%
-8 10 1.2%
-5 4 0.5%
-4 28 3.3%
-3 41 4.9%
-2 32 3.8%
-1 57 6.8%
0 65 7.7%
1 88 10.5%
2 109 13%
3 84 10%
4 86 10.2%
5 92 10.9%
6 4 0.5%
7 24 2.9%
8 57 6.8%
9 11 1.3%
10 1 0.1%
11 10 1.2%
14 2 0.2%
17 12 1.4%
21 10 1.2%

Denver (841 predictions)

Difference (°F) Count Percentage Distribution
-13 16 1.9%
-10 8 1%
-7 1 0.1%
-3 10 1.2%
-2 81 9.6%
-1 143 17%
0 130 15.5%
1 144 17.1%
2 160 19%
3 93 11.1%
4 45 5.4%
5 10 1.2%

Los Angeles (837 predictions)

Difference (°F) Count Percentage Distribution
-6 24 2.9%
-5 20 2.4%
-4 51 6.1%
-3 91 10.9%
-2 119 14.2%
-1 83 9.9%
0 88 10.5%
1 55 6.6%
2 89 10.6%
3 90 10.8%
4 29 3.5%
5 18 2.2%
6 16 1.9%
7 39 4.7%
8 7 0.8%
10 18 2.2%

New York (841 predictions)

Difference (°F) Count Percentage Distribution
-7 8 1%
-6 5 0.6%
-5 21 2.5%
-4 10 1.2%
-3 3 0.4%
-2 61 7.3%
-1 105 12.5%
0 106 12.6%
1 72 8.6%
2 144 17.1%
3 155 18.4%
4 33 3.9%
5 52 6.2%
6 8 1%
7 17 2%
8 31 3.7%
11 6 0.7%
14 4 0.5%

Austin (839 predictions)

Difference (°F) Count Percentage Distribution
-12 1 0.1%
-11 12 1.4%
-10 12 1.4%
-9 2 0.2%
-8 11 1.3%
-7 12 1.4%
-6 23 2.7%
-5 1 0.1%
-4 103 12.3%
-3 54 6.4%
-2 96 11.4%
-1 176 21%
0 241 28.7%
1 71 8.5%
2 13 1.5%
3 11 1.3%

Miami (841 predictions)

Difference (°F) Count Percentage Distribution
-5 1 0.1%
-4 24 2.9%
-3 58 6.9%
-2 51 6.1%
-1 301 35.8%
0 189 22.5%
1 144 17.1%
2 59 7%
3 1 0.1%
4 13 1.5%

Philadelphia (841 predictions)

Difference (°F) Count Percentage Distribution
0 48 5.7%
2 20 2.4%
3 4 0.5%
4 12 1.4%
5 16 1.9%
6 40 4.8%
7 61 7.3%
8 109 13%
9 117 13.9%
10 79 9.4%
11 32 3.8%
12 89 10.6%
13 84 10%
14 24 2.9%
15 44 5.2%
16 51 6.1%
17 9 1.1%
18 2 0.2%

Overall Distribution of Differences

Difference (°F) Count Percentage Distribution
-13 16 0.3%
-12 1 0%
-11 14 0.2%
-10 20 0.3%
-9 14 0.2%
-8 21 0.4%
-7 21 0.4%
-6 52 0.9%
-5 47 0.8%
-4 216 3.7%
-3 257 4.4%
-2 440 7.5%
-1 865 14.7%
0 867 14.7%
1 574 9.8%
2 594 10.1%
3 438 7.4%
4 218 3.7%
5 188 3.2%
6 68 1.2%
7 141 2.4%
8 204 3.5%
9 128 2.2%
10 98 1.7%
11 48 0.8%
12 89 1.5%
13 84 1.4%
14 30 0.5%
15 44 0.7%
16 51 0.9%
17 21 0.4%
18 2 0%
21 10 0.2%