Know What You're Really Paying For

Understanding True Odds

Betting lines can be confusing: What does "-110" really mean? Or "-14.5 at -105"? We convert these numbers into explicit probabilities so you know how likely each bet is to win.

Spread-Based Probabilities + Vig

First, we determine how often a -14.5 favorite would have covered that spread in our dataset (for simplicity, let's say about 87% of comparable scenarios). But sportsbooks also include a vig (commission) in the -110 line.

To estimate the vig for a -110 line, we do:

vig (%) = ( (110 / 210) - 0.5 ) * 100
        = (0.5238 - 0.5) * 100
        = ~2.3%
                

This 2.3% vig effectively reduces your true payout. So if the baseline coverage probability is 87%, we often show 89.3% (87% + 2.3% = 89.3%) as the "true odds" for that spread, reflecting both the underlying data and the added vig.

Moneyline-Based Probabilities

For negative moneylines like "-950," we use the standard implied probability formula:

Probability = |moneyline| / (|moneyline| + 100)
For -950, that's 950 / (950 + 100) = 0.90476 (~90.5%)
                

This tells us a -950 favorite has about a 90.5% chance to win.