AccuWeather High Temperature Prediction Analysis

Note: All differences have their signs flipped from the original data, as requested.

Median High Temperature Differences by City

City Sample Size Median Difference (°F)
Austin 68 -1.0
Denver 68 0.0
Chicago 68 2.0
Los Angeles 68 0.0
New York 68 0.0
Philadelphia 68 1.0
Miami 68 1.0
Overall 476 0.0

Distribution of Differences by City

Austin (68 predictions)

Difference (°F) Count Percentage Distribution
-8 1 1.5%
-7 3 4.4%
-6 2 2.9%
-5 1 1.5%
-4 3 4.4%
-3 7 10.3%
-2 10 14.7%
-1 8 11.8%
0 10 14.7%
1 9 13.2%
2 3 4.4%
3 4 5.9%
4 3 4.4%
5 2 2.9%
6 2 2.9%

Denver (68 predictions)

Difference (°F) Count Percentage Distribution
-10 1 1.5%
-6 1 1.5%
-4 2 2.9%
-3 1 1.5%
-2 9 13.2%
-1 14 20.6%
0 12 17.6%
1 13 19.1%
2 7 10.3%
3 3 4.4%
4 2 2.9%
6 1 1.5%
7 1 1.5%
11 1 1.5%

Chicago (68 predictions)

Difference (°F) Count Percentage Distribution
-11 1 1.5%
-6 1 1.5%
-5 2 2.9%
-4 4 5.9%
-3 3 4.4%
-2 2 2.9%
-1 7 10.3%
0 8 11.8%
1 3 4.4%
2 9 13.2%
3 6 8.8%
4 8 11.8%
5 4 5.9%
6 1 1.5%
7 2 2.9%
8 1 1.5%
9 2 2.9%
10 1 1.5%
11 1 1.5%
16 1 1.5%
18 1 1.5%

Los Angeles (68 predictions)

Difference (°F) Count Percentage Distribution
-9 1 1.5%
-4 2 2.9%
-3 6 8.8%
-2 11 16.2%
-1 10 14.7%
0 14 20.6%
1 12 17.6%
2 9 13.2%
3 1 1.5%
4 1 1.5%
6 1 1.5%

New York (68 predictions)

Difference (°F) Count Percentage Distribution
-4 3 4.4%
-3 6 8.8%
-2 13 19.1%
-1 10 14.7%
0 8 11.8%
1 7 10.3%
2 3 4.4%
3 9 13.2%
4 1 1.5%
5 4 5.9%
6 2 2.9%
7 1 1.5%
11 1 1.5%

Philadelphia (68 predictions)

Difference (°F) Count Percentage Distribution
-8 1 1.5%
-4 5 7.4%
-3 2 2.9%
-2 4 5.9%
-1 5 7.4%
0 12 17.6%
1 7 10.3%
2 13 19.1%
3 2 2.9%
4 7 10.3%
5 3 4.4%
6 4 5.9%
7 2 2.9%
8 1 1.5%

Miami (68 predictions)

Difference (°F) Count Percentage Distribution
-3 1 1.5%
-2 1 1.5%
-1 5 7.4%
0 8 11.8%
1 20 29.4%
2 19 27.9%
3 7 10.3%
4 5 7.4%
6 1 1.5%
7 1 1.5%

Overall Distribution of Differences

Difference (°F) Count Percentage Distribution
-11 1 0.2%
-10 1 0.2%
-9 1 0.2%
-8 2 0.4%
-7 3 0.6%
-6 4 0.8%
-5 3 0.6%
-4 19 4%
-3 26 5.5%
-2 50 10.5%
-1 59 12.4%
0 72 15.1%
1 71 14.9%
2 63 13.2%
3 32 6.7%
4 27 5.7%
5 13 2.7%
6 12 2.5%
7 7 1.5%
8 2 0.4%
9 2 0.4%
10 1 0.2%
11 3 0.6%
16 1 0.2%
18 1 0.2%